quarta-feira, 13 de abril de 2011

O poder do índice futuro

Atualmente quem está mandando e desmandando na Bovespa é o mercado de índice futuro, essa minha suspeita foi confirmada hoje com o vencimento de contratos de Ibovespa futuro e de opções sobre o índice. Há 6 dias atrás o índice bovespa operava na casa dos 70k, desde então o mercado sofreu uma forte virada de mão pegando muita gente de surpresa derrubando o índice para a casa dos 66.4k nesta quarta-feira. Você sabe porque? Proximidade do vencimento do índice futuro. A força do mercado está aí, grandes players conseguem alavancar fortemente nos futuros e utilizam o mercado a vista para "balizar" este movimento, para isto basta bater nas principais blue chips (que tem grande peso sobre o índice) no mercado a vista.

Hoje foi o vencimento dos contratos de índice futuro e as operações vendedoras prevaleceram sobre o mercado, isto é, quem vendeu nos futuros está embolsando lucros. A posição vendida por parte do investidores estrangeiros no índice futuro tinha quase dobrado no pregão de ontem. Na próxima segunda-feira é a vez do vencimento de opções sobre ações e a volatilidade deverá permanecer até lá. Olhando para o gráfico do Ibovespa podemos perceber que a LTA que vem do fundo em 64k foi perdida deixando o trabalho de suporte para acionar um repique de alta na região dos 66k.


Nos Estados Unidos tivemos o famoso Livro Bege, o relatório elaborado pelo Federal Reserve (banco central norte-americano), apontando que continua o processo de recuperação da economia, mas a autoridade monetária ressaltou que o encarecimento das commodities já começou a pressionar os preços domésticos. Com isso Dow Jones interrompeu sua trajetória de baixa no curto prazo soltando um doji de indecisão em cima da linha central de bollinger, MACD continua descendente indicando mais queda para o curto prazo.

18 comentários:

  1. Olá, a petro como esperado bateu cabeça nos 26,10, qual sua impressão no momento??? Foi bem interessante, até chegar por volta dos 26,15 o volume não era tão intenso, depois das 3Hs começou chegar ordens com força, no final as corretoras estrangeiras lideraram o book de compras.
    As siderurgicas é que estão ruim das pernas, se amanhã não houver algum sinal de reversão irá confirmar perda de suportes, me lembra 2008!!!

    Ivan

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  2. Ótima observação e análise sobre o Índice Futuro. Eu também já havia notado. Se nós percebemos esses movimentos antes, podemos tentar nos "proteger", minimizar perdas, e não estressar tanto com o movimento...

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  3. Ivan,

    A petro tomou uma cacetada tão feia que essa região dos 26,00 deverá atuar como suporte no curto prazo já que o nível de sobrevenda estava (e ainda está) muito alto. No mínimo o papel vai repicar. O problema todo é no gráfico semanal, perdeu a linha de sustentanção (média simples 20) e pode em algumas semanas testar a linha inferior de bollinger na região dos 25 podendo ir aos 24 novamente que é o suporte mais importante.

    Sobre siderúrgicas o mercado para médio e longo prazo é que não está bom, se tiver tempo leia no menu "pedidos de análise" uma análise que fiz da usiminas meses atrás. Mas as siderúrgicas são muito boas pra trade, pra tirar proveito quando o ibov sobe 1% por exemplo, elas sobem 2, 3%.

    2008 está na memória de muita gente ainda. Lembrando que mercados em crash, suportes foram feitos para serem estourados.

    Abcs,

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  4. Carla,

    Exatamente. Já que não podemos competir com eles, temos que pelo menos tentar seguir o rastro dos grandes players no mercado. Índice futuro é o paraíso dos manda-chuva do mercado, o único problema é quando eles operam com estratégias diferentes aí é briga na certa e o mercado treme, um JP da vida brigando com um CS por exemplo tem que ficar de fora que é briga de cachorro grande e sobra pra todo mundo.

    O mercado mudou muito nos últimos 10 anos e temos que ir adaptando. Agora temos que saber lidar com os robôs das corretoras, jogadas de book, entender o mercado futuro e principalmente não ir contra os grandes players do mercado.

    Abcs,

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